As you know, Conan O’Brien takes over The Tonight Show Monday night. The takeover, in my mind, raises three huge questions.
How will the new Tonight Show deal with The Colbert Report?
Conan O’Brien and Stephen Colbert, generally speaking, share the same audience. Reports have shown that they attract young people with high IQs, which was perfect for O’Brien’s Late Night. College students, for example, could watch the hour block of Comedy Central’s faux news shows, choose the more interesting guest on Leno or Letterman and then watch Conan’s entire show. But this formula will change tonight because O’Brien’s first half hour is much more appealing than Leno and Letterman’s.
Prediction: Conan will be helped by the mainstream use of DVRs and Comedy Central replaying The Colbert Report four times a day. People won’t ignore quality TV and I think the younger audience both shows appeal to will find a way to view both on a regular basis. I know I will.
Will Jimmy Fallon’s audience stay tuned after The Tonight Show?
Compared to Late Night with Conan O’Brien, Jimmy Fallon’s new show is incredibly lame and will likely be exposed as such following the new Tonight Show. Fallon will have very good ratings initially, but don’t expect that to last very long because the nightly presence of Conan will further point out how bad Fallon is as a late night host.
Prediction: Craig Ferguson continuously beats Fallon in three months and Fallon begins to receive heavy criticism when his ratings begin to drop.
Can Conan O’Brien get guests that rival David Letterman’s?
Letterman has more contacts around the country and O’Brien will play second fiddle to Jay Leno once his new talk show debuts at 9 p.m. If you look at the first two weeks of Conan’s reign at The Tonight Show, it’s clear that Letterman has the better slate of guests. But Conan’s bits shouldn’t be stale like most of Letterman’s and his monologue should be edgier. Both Conan and Dave’s brand of comedy is smarter than Leno’s, but Conan seems to be a nicer interviewer than Letterman, who can make guests very awkward.
Prediction: Letterman’s ratings will increase because he’ll be able to get better guests than O’Brien. This will make their ratings race more exciting than the Letterman-Leno battle. The thing that Letterman doesn’t have is a young audience, which publicists figure to choose The Tonight Show for. All in all, things should be somewhat even between the two. But will things change once Leno’s new talk show starts? I don’t know, but I’m excited to watch.
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This post was written by Eric Van Dril. For more of his writing, check out RipcordNews.com.